Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4684 LANDED 2:17 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

took off 10:03 AM PT · landed 2:17 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

Odds over time