Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
F9 4685 · PSE → MCO
departs 10:32 AM AT · arrives 1:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PSE that day
↑
PSE is busy at that time
↓
10am departures from PSE are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PSE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.