Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4794 · DEN → FAR
departs 10:55 AM MT · arrives 1:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 18%
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
FAR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.