F9 690 · DEN → DCA

departs 4:28 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 690 · DEN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?