Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3351 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 3351 · MIA → AVL

departs 9:49 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Other factors

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3351 · MIA → AVL

Odds over time