MQ 3412 · ORD → CWA

departs 9:53 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CWA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at CWA that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

CWA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3412 · ORD → CWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CWA?