Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3429 · DFW → BIL
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 12:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BIL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BIL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
BIL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
BIL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 7,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.