Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3451 LANDED 8:53 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

MQ 3451 · MIA → TLH

took off 7:52 PM ET · landed 8:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

TLH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3451 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time