Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3458 · CID → ORD
departs 6:51 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 73%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.15 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.