Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3458 · ORD → CID
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
CID (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.