Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3478 · COU → DFW
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 79%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave COU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COU
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
COU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.