Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3493 · ORD → AVL
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 12:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 65%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.