MQ 3573 · ORD → RAP

took off 9:58 AM CT · landed 10:52 AM MT (scheduled 9:57 AM CT → 11:33 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RAP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.30 in

RAP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3573 · ORD → RAP

Odds over time

How late did it get to RAP?