MQ 3591 · DFW → SGF

took off 6:13 PM CT · expected to land 7:09 PM CT (scheduled 5:34 PM CT → 7:03 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SGF?

LIVE

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SGF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.41 in

SGF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3591 · DFW → SGF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SGF?