Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3591 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3591 · DFW → MSY

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:34 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSY that day

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.05 in

MSY (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3591 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?