Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3621 · DFW → LEX
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 48%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
LEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.