Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3621 · LEX → DFW
departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.