Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3621 · LEX → DFW

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±8 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LEX that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

DFW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3621 · LEX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?