Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3621 · LEX → DFW
departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 63%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±10 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,233 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.66 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.