Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3640 LANDED 2:16 PM ET, ~20 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 3640 · GSO → MIA

took off 12:32 PM ET · landed 2:16 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3640 · GSO → MIA

Odds over time