Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3649 · LSE → ORD
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 74% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
LSE usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LSE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.05 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.