Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3740 · ORD → PIA
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
PIA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.