Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3781 · DFW → SAT
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 6:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±3 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
22%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
22%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.