Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3781 · DFW → SAT
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 6:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.