Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3781 · DFW → SAT
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 6:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.