Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3783 · TYS → ORD
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 71%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.