Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3783 · TYS → ORD
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.