Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3830 · DFW → TUL
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.