Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3830 · DFW → TUL
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into TUL at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.