Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3830 · DFW → TUL
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.