MQ 3876 · MIA → GNV

departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GNV more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GNV?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GNV

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

GNV (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3876 · MIA → GNV

Odds over time

How late will it get to GNV?