Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3883 · DFW → MOB
departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MOB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
MOB (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.