Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3891 LANDED 12:32 PM ET, ~8 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 3891 · CHS → DCA

took off 11:22 AM ET · landed 12:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3891 · CHS → DCA

Odds over time