Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3972 · BMI → ORD
departs 6:04 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 62%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BMI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.