Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3981 · ORD → AVL
departs 8:10 AM CT · arrives 11:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AVL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.