Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3991 · BNA → DCA
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
BNA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.