Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4004 LANDED 1:33 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 4004 · HXD → CLT

took off 12:54 AM CST · landed 1:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 33h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ HXD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

HXD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4004 · HXD → CLT

Odds over time