Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4005 · DFW → LCH
departs 8:25 AM CT · arrives 9:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LCH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LCH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
LCH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.