Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 4005 · LCH → DFW
departs 10:18 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 40%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.