MQ 4023 · JAX → MIA

departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · JAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?