Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4024 LANDED 8:58 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

MQ 4024 · MIA → JAX

took off 8:07 AM ET · landed 8:58 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4024 · MIA → JAX

Odds over time