Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4031 · SBA → PHX
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 11:23 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SBA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.