MQ 4053 · RDU → DCA

departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,571 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4053 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?