Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
MQ 4103 · ORD → DTW
departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 9:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
7am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.53 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.