Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4116 LANDED 11:11 AM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4116 · DFW → MLI

took off 9:38 AM CT · landed 11:11 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MLI that day

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Other factors

↓ MLI usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MLI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

MLI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4116 · DFW → MLI

Odds over time