MQ 4142 · ICT → DFW

departs 11:25 AM CT · arrives 12:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ICT that day

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ 11am departures from ICT are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ICT (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.64 in

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4142 · ICT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?