MQ 4145 · ORD → GSP

departs 2:49 PM CT · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

GSP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4145 · ORD → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?