Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 4174 · RST → ORD
departs 10:59 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
RST usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RST (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.