Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4174 · RST → ORD
departs 10:59 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at RST that day
↓
RST usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RST (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.