Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4176 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

MQ 4176 · SAT → ORD

took off 6:52 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:57 PM CT → 10:07 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4176 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?